Week 43: Introduction to the course, Logistics and Practicalities and linear regression

# Importing various packages
import numpy as np

n = 100
x = np.random.normal(size=n)
print(np.mean(x))
y = 4+3*x+np.random.normal(size=n)
print(np.mean(y))
z = x**3+np.random.normal(size=n)
print(np.mean(z))
W = np.vstack((x, y, z))
Sigma = np.cov(W)
print(Sigma)
Eigvals, Eigvecs = np.linalg.eig(Sigma)
print(Eigvals)

import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from scipy import sparse
eye = np.eye(4)
print(eye)
sparse_mtx = sparse.csr_matrix(eye)
print(sparse_mtx)
x = np.linspace(-10,10,100)
y = np.sin(x)
plt.plot(x,y,marker='x')
plt.show()

Meet the Pandas

Another useful Python package is pandas, which is an open source library providing high-performance, easy-to-use data structures and data analysis tools for Python. pandas stands for panel data, a term borrowed from econometrics and is an efficient library for data analysis with an emphasis on tabular data. pandas has two major classes, the DataFrame class with two-dimensional data objects and tabular data organized in columns and the class Series with a focus on one-dimensional data objects. Both classes allow you to index data easily as we will see in the examples below. pandas allows you also to perform mathematical operations on the data, spanning from simple reshapings of vectors and matrices to statistical operations.

The following simple example shows how we can, in an easy way make tables of our data. Here we define a data set which includes names, place of birth and date of birth, and displays the data in an easy to read way. We will see repeated use of pandas, in particular in connection with classification of data.

import pandas as pd
from IPython.display import display
data = {'First Name': ["Frodo", "Bilbo", "Aragorn II", "Samwise"],
        'Last Name': ["Baggins", "Baggins","Elessar","Gamgee"],
        'Place of birth': ["Shire", "Shire", "Eriador", "Shire"],
        'Date of Birth T.A.': [2968, 2890, 2931, 2980]
        }
data_pandas = pd.DataFrame(data)
display(data_pandas)

In the above we have imported pandas with the shorthand pd, the latter has become the standard way we import pandas. We make then a list of various variables and reorganize the aboves lists into a DataFrame and then print out a neat table with specific column labels as Name, place of birth and date of birth. Displaying these results, we see that the indices are given by the default numbers from zero to three. pandas is extremely flexible and we can easily change the above indices by defining a new type of indexing as

data_pandas = pd.DataFrame(data,index=['Frodo','Bilbo','Aragorn','Sam'])
display(data_pandas)

Thereafter we display the content of the row which begins with the index Aragorn

display(data_pandas.loc['Aragorn'])

We can easily append data to this, for example

new_hobbit = {'First Name': ["Peregrin"],
              'Last Name': ["Took"],
              'Place of birth': ["Shire"],
              'Date of Birth T.A.': [2990]
              }
data_pandas=data_pandas.append(pd.DataFrame(new_hobbit, index=['Pippin']))
display(data_pandas)

Here are other examples where we use the DataFrame functionality to handle arrays, now with more interesting features for us, namely numbers. We set up a matrix of dimensionality \( 10\times 5 \) and compute the mean value and standard deviation of each column. Similarly, we can perform mathematial operations like squaring the matrix elements and many other operations.

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from IPython.display import display
np.random.seed(100)
# setting up a 10 x 5 matrix
rows = 10
cols = 5
a = np.random.randn(rows,cols)
df = pd.DataFrame(a)
display(df)
print(df.mean())
print(df.std())
display(df**2)

Thereafter we can select specific columns only and plot final results

df.columns = ['First', 'Second', 'Third', 'Fourth', 'Fifth']
df.index = np.arange(10)

display(df)
print(df['Second'].mean() )
print(df.info())
print(df.describe())

from pylab import plt, mpl
plt.style.use('seaborn')
mpl.rcParams['font.family'] = 'serif'

df.cumsum().plot(lw=2.0, figsize=(10,6))
plt.show()


df.plot.bar(figsize=(10,6), rot=15)
plt.show()

We can produce a \( 4\times 4 \) matrix

b = np.arange(16).reshape((4,4))
print(b)
df1 = pd.DataFrame(b)
print(df1)

and many other operations.

The Series class is another important class included in pandas. You can view it as a specialization of DataFrame but where we have just a single column of data. It shares many of the same features as _DataFrame. As with DataFrame, most operations are vectorized, achieving thereby a high performance when dealing with computations of arrays, in particular labeled arrays. As we will see below it leads also to a very concice code close to the mathematical operations we may be interested in. For multidimensional arrays, we recommend strongly xarray. xarray has much of the same flexibility as pandas, but allows for the extension to higher dimensions than two. We will see examples later of the usage of both pandas and xarray.

Simple linear regression model using scikit-learn

We start with perhaps our simplest possible example, using Scikit-Learn to perform linear regression analysis on a data set produced by us.

What follows is a simple Python code where we have defined a function \( y \) in terms of the variable \( x \). Both are defined as vectors with \( 100 \) entries. The numbers in the vector \( \boldsymbol{x} \) are given by random numbers generated with a uniform distribution with entries \( x_i \in [0,1] \) (more about probability distribution functions later). These values are then used to define a function \( y(x) \) (tabulated again as a vector) with a linear dependence on \( x \) plus a random noise added via the normal distribution.

The Numpy functions are imported used the import numpy as np statement and the random number generator for the uniform distribution is called using the function np.random.rand(), where we specificy that we want \( 100 \) random variables. Using Numpy we define automatically an array with the specified number of elements, \( 100 \) in our case. With the Numpy function randn() we can compute random numbers with the normal distribution (mean value \( \mu \) equal to zero and variance \( \sigma^2 \) set to one) and produce the values of \( y \) assuming a linear dependence as function of \( x \)

where \( N(0,1) \) represents random numbers generated by the normal distribution. From Scikit-Learn we import then the LinearRegression functionality and make a prediction \( \tilde{y} = \alpha + \beta x \) using the function fit(x,y). We call the set of data \( (\boldsymbol{x},\boldsymbol{y}) \) for our training data. The Python package scikit-learn has also a functionality which extracts the above fitting parameters \( \alpha \) and \( \beta \) (see below). Later we will distinguish between training data and test data.

For plotting we use the Python package matplotlib which produces publication quality figures. Feel free to explore the extensive gallery of examples. In this example we plot our original values of \( x \) and \( y \) as well as the prediction ypredict (\( \tilde{y} \)), which attempts at fitting our data with a straight line.

The Python code follows here.

# Importing various packages
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression

x = np.random.rand(100,1)
y = 2*x+np.random.randn(100,1)
linreg = LinearRegression()
linreg.fit(x,y)
xnew = np.array([[0],[1]])
ypredict = linreg.predict(xnew)

plt.plot(xnew, ypredict, "r-")
plt.plot(x, y ,'ro')
plt.axis([0,1.0,0, 5.0])
plt.xlabel(r'$x$')
plt.ylabel(r'$y$')
plt.title(r'Simple Linear Regression')
plt.show()

This example serves several aims. It allows us to demonstrate several aspects of data analysis and later machine learning algorithms. The immediate visualization shows that our linear fit is not impressive. It goes through the data points, but there are many outliers which are not reproduced by our linear regression. We could now play around with this small program and change for example the factor in front of \( x \) and the normal distribution. Try to change the function \( y \) to

where \( x \) is defined as before. Does the fit look better? Indeed, by reducing the role of the noise given by the normal distribution we see immediately that our linear prediction seemingly reproduces better the training set. However, this testing 'by the eye' is obviouly not satisfactory in the long run. Here we have only defined the training data and our model, and have not discussed a more rigorous approach to the cost function.

We need more rigorous criteria in defining whether we have succeeded or not in modeling our training data. You will be surprised to see that many scientists seldomly venture beyond this 'by the eye' approach. A standard approach for the cost function is the so-called \( \chi^2 \) function (a variant of the mean-squared error (MSE))

where \( \sigma_i^2 \) is the variance (to be defined later) of the entry \( y_i \). We may not know the explicit value of \( \sigma_i^2 \), it serves however the aim of scaling the equations and make the cost function dimensionless.

Minimizing the cost function is a central aspect of our discussions to come. Finding its minima as function of the model parameters (\( \alpha \) and \( \beta \) in our case) will be a recurring theme in these series of lectures. Essentially all machine learning algorithms we will discuss center around the minimization of the chosen cost function. This depends in turn on our specific model for describing the data, a typical situation in supervised learning. Automatizing the search for the minima of the cost function is a central ingredient in all algorithms. Typical methods which are employed are various variants of gradient methods. These will be discussed in more detail later. Again, you'll be surprised to hear that many practitioners minimize the above function ''by the eye', popularly dubbed as 'chi by the eye'. That is, change a parameter and see (visually and numerically) that the \( \chi^2 \) function becomes smaller.

There are many ways to define the cost function. A simpler approach is to look at the relative difference between the training data and the predicted data, that is we define the relative error (why would we prefer the MSE instead of the relative error?) as

The squared cost function results in an arithmetic mean-unbiased estimator, and the absolute-value cost function results in a median-unbiased estimator (in the one-dimensional case, and a geometric median-unbiased estimator for the multi-dimensional case). The squared cost function has the disadvantage that it has the tendency to be dominated by outliers.

We can modify easily the above Python code and plot the relative error instead

import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression

x = np.random.rand(100,1)
y = 5*x+0.01*np.random.randn(100,1)
linreg = LinearRegression()
linreg.fit(x,y)
ypredict = linreg.predict(x)

plt.plot(x, np.abs(ypredict-y)/abs(y), "ro")
plt.axis([0,1.0,0.0, 0.5])
plt.xlabel(r'$x$')
plt.ylabel(r'$\epsilon_{\mathrm{relative}}$')
plt.title(r'Relative error')
plt.show()

Depending on the parameter in front of the normal distribution, we may have a small or larger relative error. Try to play around with different training data sets and study (graphically) the value of the relative error.

As mentioned above, Scikit-Learn has an impressive functionality. We can for example extract the values of \( \alpha \) and \( \beta \) and their error estimates, or the variance and standard deviation and many other properties from the statistical data analysis.

Here we show an example of the functionality of Scikit-Learn.

import numpy as np 
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt 
from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression 
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error, r2_score, mean_squared_log_error, mean_absolute_error

x = np.random.rand(100,1)
y = 2.0+ 5*x+0.5*np.random.randn(100,1)
linreg = LinearRegression()
linreg.fit(x,y)
ypredict = linreg.predict(x)
print('The intercept alpha: \n', linreg.intercept_)
print('Coefficient beta : \n', linreg.coef_)
# The mean squared error                               
print("Mean squared error: %.2f" % mean_squared_error(y, ypredict))
# Explained variance score: 1 is perfect prediction                                 
print('Variance score: %.2f' % r2_score(y, ypredict))
# Mean squared log error                                                        
print('Mean squared log error: %.2f' % mean_squared_log_error(y, ypredict) )
# Mean absolute error                                                           
print('Mean absolute error: %.2f' % mean_absolute_error(y, ypredict))
plt.plot(x, ypredict, "r-")
plt.plot(x, y ,'ro')
plt.axis([0.0,1.0,1.5, 7.0])
plt.xlabel(r'$x$')
plt.ylabel(r'$y$')
plt.title(r'Linear Regression fit ')
plt.show()

The function coef gives us the parameter \( \beta \) of our fit while intercept yields \( \alpha \). Depending on the constant in front of the normal distribution, we get values near or far from \( \alpha =2 \) and \( \beta =5 \). Try to play around with different parameters in front of the normal distribution. The function meansquarederror gives us the mean square error, a risk metric corresponding to the expected value of the squared (quadratic) error or loss defined as

The smaller the value, the better the fit. Ideally we would like to have an MSE equal zero. The attentive reader has probably recognized this function as being similar to the \( \chi^2 \) function defined above.

The r2score function computes \( R^2 \), the coefficient of determination. It provides a measure of how well future samples are likely to be predicted by the model. Best possible score is 1.0 and it can be negative (because the model can be arbitrarily worse). A constant model that always predicts the expected value of \( \boldsymbol{y} \), disregarding the input features, would get a \( R^2 \) score of \( 0.0 \).

If \( \tilde{\boldsymbol{y}}_i \) is the predicted value of the \( i-th \) sample and \( y_i \) is the corresponding true value, then the score \( R^2 \) is defined as

where we have defined the mean value of \( \boldsymbol{y} \) as

Another quantity taht we will meet again in our discussions of regression analysis is the mean absolute error (MAE), a risk metric corresponding to the expected value of the absolute error loss or what we call the \( l1 \)-norm loss. In our discussion above we presented the relative error. The MAE is defined as follows

We present the squared logarithmic (quadratic) error

where \( \log_e (x) \) stands for the natural logarithm of \( x \). This error estimate is best to use when targets having exponential growth, such as population counts, average sales of a commodity over a span of years etc.

Finally, another cost function is the Huber cost function used in robust regression.

The rationale behind this possible cost function is its reduced sensitivity to outliers in the data set. In our discussions on dimensionality reduction and normalization of data we will meet other ways of dealing with outliers.

The Huber cost function is defined as

Here \( \boldsymbol{a}=\boldsymbol{y} - \boldsymbol{\tilde{y}} \).

We will discuss in more detail these and other functions in the various lectures. We conclude this part with another example. Instead of a linear \( x \)-dependence we study now a cubic polynomial and use the polynomial regression analysis tools of scikit-learn.

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
import random
from sklearn.linear_model import Ridge
from sklearn.preprocessing import PolynomialFeatures
from sklearn.pipeline import make_pipeline
from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression

x=np.linspace(0.02,0.98,200)
noise = np.asarray(random.sample((range(200)),200))
y=x**3*noise
yn=x**3*100
poly3 = PolynomialFeatures(degree=3)
X = poly3.fit_transform(x[:,np.newaxis])
clf3 = LinearRegression()
clf3.fit(X,y)

Xplot=poly3.fit_transform(x[:,np.newaxis])
poly3_plot=plt.plot(x, clf3.predict(Xplot), label='Cubic Fit')
plt.plot(x,yn, color='red', label="True Cubic")
plt.scatter(x, y, label='Data', color='orange', s=15)
plt.legend()
plt.show()

def error(a):
    for i in y:
        err=(y-yn)/yn
    return abs(np.sum(err))/len(err)

print (error(y))

To our real data: nuclear binding energies. Brief reminder on masses and binding energies

Let us now dive into nuclear physics and remind ourselves briefly about some basic features about binding energies. A basic quantity which can be measured for the ground states of nuclei is the atomic mass \( M(N, Z) \) of the neutral atom with atomic mass number \( A \) and charge \( Z \). The number of neutrons is \( N \). There are indeed several sophisticated experiments worldwide which allow us to measure this quantity to high precision (parts per million even).

Atomic masses are usually tabulated in terms of the mass excess defined by

where \( u \) is the Atomic Mass Unit

The nucleon masses are

and

In the 2016 mass evaluation of by W.J.Huang, G.Audi, M.Wang, F.G.Kondev, S.Naimi and X.Xu there are data on masses and decays of 3437 nuclei.

The nuclear binding energy is defined as the energy required to break up a given nucleus into its constituent parts of \( N \) neutrons and \( Z \) protons. In terms of the atomic masses \( M(N, Z) \) the binding energy is defined by

where \( M_H \) is the mass of the hydrogen atom and \( m_n \) is the mass of the neutron. In terms of the mass excess the binding energy is given by

where \( \Delta_H c^2 = 7.2890 \) MeV and \( \Delta_n c^2 = 8.0713 \) MeV.

A popular and physically intuitive model which can be used to parametrize the experimental binding energies as function of \( A \), is the so-called liquid drop model. The ansatz is based on the following expression

where \( A \) stands for the number of nucleons and the $a_i$s are parameters which are determined by a fit to the experimental data.

To arrive at the above expression we have assumed that we can make the following assumptions:

• There is a volume term \( a_1A \) proportional with the number of nucleons (the energy is also an extensive quantity). When an assembly of nucleons of the same size is packed together into the smallest volume, each interior nucleon has a certain number of other nucleons in contact with it. This contribution is proportional to the volume.
• There is a surface energy term \( a_2A^{2/3} \). The assumption here is that a nucleon at the surface of a nucleus interacts with fewer other nucleons than one in the interior of the nucleus and hence its binding energy is less. This surface energy term takes that into account and is therefore negative and is proportional to the surface area.
• There is a Coulomb energy term \( a_3\frac{Z^2}{A^{1/3}} \). The electric repulsion between each pair of protons in a nucleus yields less binding.
• There is an asymmetry term \( a_4\frac{(N-Z)^2}{A} \). This term is associated with the Pauli exclusion principle and reflects the fact that the proton-neutron interaction is more attractive on the average than the neutron-neutron and proton-proton interactions.

We could also add a so-called pairing term, which is a correction term that arises from the tendency of proton pairs and neutron pairs to occur. An even number of particles is more stable than an odd number.

Organizing our data

Let us start with reading and organizing our data. We start with the compilation of masses and binding energies from 2016. After having downloaded this file to our own computer, we are now ready to read the file and start structuring our data.

We start with preparing folders for storing our calculations and the data file over masses and binding energies. We import also various modules that we will find useful in order to present various Machine Learning methods. Here we focus mainly on the functionality of scikit-learn.

# Common imports
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import sklearn.linear_model as skl
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error, r2_score, mean_absolute_error
import os

# Where to save the figures and data files
PROJECT_ROOT_DIR = "Results"
FIGURE_ID = "Results/FigureFiles"
DATA_ID = "DataFiles/"

if not os.path.exists(PROJECT_ROOT_DIR):
    os.mkdir(PROJECT_ROOT_DIR)

if not os.path.exists(FIGURE_ID):
    os.makedirs(FIGURE_ID)

if not os.path.exists(DATA_ID):
    os.makedirs(DATA_ID)

def image_path(fig_id):
    return os.path.join(FIGURE_ID, fig_id)

def data_path(dat_id):
    return os.path.join(DATA_ID, dat_id)

def save_fig(fig_id):
    plt.savefig(image_path(fig_id) + ".png", format='png')

infile = open(data_path("MassEval2016.dat"),'r')

Before we proceed, we define also a function for making our plots. You can obviously avoid this and simply set up various matplotlib commands every time you need them. You may however find it convenient to collect all such commands in one function and simply call this function.

from pylab import plt, mpl
plt.style.use('seaborn')
mpl.rcParams['font.family'] = 'serif'

def MakePlot(x,y, styles, labels, axlabels):
    plt.figure(figsize=(10,6))
    for i in range(len(x)):
        plt.plot(x[i], y[i], styles[i], label = labels[i])
        plt.xlabel(axlabels[0])
        plt.ylabel(axlabels[1])
    plt.legend(loc=0)

Our next step is to read the data on experimental binding energies and reorganize them as functions of the mass number \( A \), the number of protons \( Z \) and neutrons \( N \) using pandas. Before we do this it is always useful (unless you have a binary file or other types of compressed data) to actually open the file and simply take a look at it!

In particular, the program that outputs the final nuclear masses is written in Fortran with a specific format. It means that we need to figure out the format and which columns contain the data we are interested in. Pandas comes with a function that reads formatted output. After having admired the file, we are now ready to start massaging it with pandas. The file begins with some basic format information.

"""                                                                                                                         
This is taken from the data file of the mass 2016 evaluation.                                                               
All files are 3436 lines long with 124 character per line.                                                                  
       Headers are 39 lines long.                                                                                           
   col 1     :  Fortran character control: 1 = page feed  0 = line feed                                                     
   format    :  a1,i3,i5,i5,i5,1x,a3,a4,1x,f13.5,f11.5,f11.3,f9.3,1x,a2,f11.3,f9.3,1x,i3,1x,f12.5,f11.5                     
   These formats are reflected in the pandas widths variable below, see the statement                                       
   widths=(1,3,5,5,5,1,3,4,1,13,11,11,9,1,2,11,9,1,3,1,12,11,1),                                                            
   Pandas has also a variable header, with length 39 in this case.                                                          
"""

The data we are interested in are in columns 2, 3, 4 and 11, giving us the number of neutrons, protons, mass numbers and binding energies, respectively. We add also for the sake of completeness the element name. The data are in fixed-width formatted lines and we will covert them into the pandas DataFrame structure.

# Read the experimental data with Pandas
Masses = pd.read_fwf(infile, usecols=(2,3,4,6,11),
              names=('N', 'Z', 'A', 'Element', 'Ebinding'),
              widths=(1,3,5,5,5,1,3,4,1,13,11,11,9,1,2,11,9,1,3,1,12,11,1),
              header=39,
              index_col=False)

# Extrapolated values are indicated by '#' in place of the decimal place, so
# the Ebinding column won't be numeric. Coerce to float and drop these entries.
Masses['Ebinding'] = pd.to_numeric(Masses['Ebinding'], errors='coerce')
Masses = Masses.dropna()
# Convert from keV to MeV.
Masses['Ebinding'] /= 1000

# Group the DataFrame by nucleon number, A.
Masses = Masses.groupby('A')
# Find the rows of the grouped DataFrame with the maximum binding energy.
Masses = Masses.apply(lambda t: t[t.Ebinding==t.Ebinding.max()])

We have now read in the data, grouped them according to the variables we are interested in. We see how easy it is to reorganize the data using pandas. If we were to do these operations in C/C++ or Fortran, we would have had to write various functions/subroutines which perform the above reorganizations for us. Having reorganized the data, we can now start to make some simple fits using both the functionalities in numpy and Scikit-Learn afterwards.

Now we define five variables which contain the number of nucleons \( A \), the number of protons \( Z \) and the number of neutrons \( N \), the element name and finally the energies themselves.

A = Masses['A']
Z = Masses['Z']
N = Masses['N']
Element = Masses['Element']
Energies = Masses['Ebinding']
print(Masses)

The next step, and we will define this mathematically later, is to set up the so-called design matrix. We will throughout call this matrix \( \boldsymbol{X} \). It has dimensionality \( p\times n \), where \( n \) is the number of data points and \( p \) are the so-called predictors. In our case here they are given by the number of polynomials in \( A \) we wish to include in the fit.

# Now we set up the design matrix X
X = np.zeros((len(A),5))
X[:,0] = 1
X[:,1] = A
X[:,2] = A**(2.0/3.0)
X[:,3] = A**(-1.0/3.0)
X[:,4] = A**(-1.0)

With scikitlearn we are now ready to use linear regression and fit our data.

clf = skl.LinearRegression().fit(X, Energies)
fity = clf.predict(X)

Pretty simple! Now we can print measures of how our fit is doing, the coefficients from the fits and plot the final fit together with our data.

# The mean squared error                               
print("Mean squared error: %.2f" % mean_squared_error(Energies, fity))
# Explained variance score: 1 is perfect prediction                                 
print('Variance score: %.2f' % r2_score(Energies, fity))
# Mean absolute error                                                           
print('Mean absolute error: %.2f' % mean_absolute_error(Energies, fity))
print(clf.coef_, clf.intercept_)

Masses['Eapprox']  = fity
# Generate a plot comparing the experimental with the fitted values values.
fig, ax = plt.subplots()
ax.set_xlabel(r'$A = N + Z$')
ax.set_ylabel(r'$E_\mathrm{bind}\,/\mathrm{MeV}$')
ax.plot(Masses['A'], Masses['Ebinding'], alpha=0.7, lw=2,
            label='Ame2016')
ax.plot(Masses['A'], Masses['Eapprox'], alpha=0.7, lw=2, c='m',
            label='Fit')
ax.legend()
save_fig("Masses2016")
plt.show()

Seeing the wood for the trees

As a teaser, let us now see how we can do this with decision trees using scikit-learn. Later we will switch to so-called random forests!

#Decision Tree Regression
from sklearn.tree import DecisionTreeRegressor
regr_1=DecisionTreeRegressor(max_depth=5)
regr_2=DecisionTreeRegressor(max_depth=7)
regr_3=DecisionTreeRegressor(max_depth=9)
regr_1.fit(X, Energies)
regr_2.fit(X, Energies)
regr_3.fit(X, Energies)


y_1 = regr_1.predict(X)
y_2 = regr_2.predict(X)
y_3=regr_3.predict(X)
Masses['Eapprox'] = y_3
# Plot the results
plt.figure()
plt.plot(A, Energies, color="blue", label="Data", linewidth=2)
plt.plot(A, y_1, color="red", label="max_depth=5", linewidth=2)
plt.plot(A, y_2, color="green", label="max_depth=7", linewidth=2)
plt.plot(A, y_3, color="m", label="max_depth=9", linewidth=2)

plt.xlabel("$A$")
plt.ylabel("$E$[MeV]")
plt.title("Decision Tree Regression")
plt.legend()
save_fig("Masses2016Trees")
plt.show()
print(Masses)
print(np.mean( (Energies-y_1)**2))

And what about using neural networks?

The seaborn package allows us to visualize data in an efficient way. Note that we use scikit-learn's multi-layer perceptron (or feed forward neural network) functionality.

from sklearn.neural_network import MLPRegressor
from sklearn.metrics import accuracy_score
import seaborn as sns

X_train = X
Y_train = Energies
n_hidden_neurons = 100
epochs = 100
# store models for later use
eta_vals = np.logspace(-5, 1, 7)
lmbd_vals = np.logspace(-5, 1, 7)
# store the models for later use
DNN_scikit = np.zeros((len(eta_vals), len(lmbd_vals)), dtype=object)
train_accuracy = np.zeros((len(eta_vals), len(lmbd_vals)))
sns.set()
for i, eta in enumerate(eta_vals):
    for j, lmbd in enumerate(lmbd_vals):
        dnn = MLPRegressor(hidden_layer_sizes=(n_hidden_neurons), activation='logistic',
                            alpha=lmbd, learning_rate_init=eta, max_iter=epochs)
        dnn.fit(X_train, Y_train)
        DNN_scikit[i][j] = dnn
        train_accuracy[i][j] = dnn.score(X_train, Y_train)

fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize = (10, 10))
sns.heatmap(train_accuracy, annot=True, ax=ax, cmap="viridis")
ax.set_title("Training Accuracy")
ax.set_ylabel("$\eta$")
ax.set_xlabel("$\lambda$")
plt.show()

A first summary

The aim behind these introductory words was to present to you various Python libraries and their functionalities, in particular libraries like numpy, pandas, xarray and matplotlib and other that make our life much easier in handling various data sets and visualizing data.

Furthermore, Scikit-Learn allows us with few lines of code to implement popular Machine Learning algorithms for supervised learning. Later we will meet Tensorflow, a powerful library for deep learning. Now it is time to dive more into the details of various methods. We will start with linear regression and try to take a deeper look at what it entails.

Why Linear Regression (aka Ordinary Least Squares and family)

Fitting a continuous function with linear parameterization in terms of the parameters \( \boldsymbol{\beta} \).

• Method of choice for fitting a continuous function!
• Gives an excellent introduction to central Machine Learning features with understandable pedagogical links to other methods like Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines etc
• Analytical expression for the fitting parameters \( \boldsymbol{\beta} \)
• Analytical expressions for statistical propertiers like mean values, variances, confidence intervals and more
• Analytical relation with probabilistic interpretations
• Easy to introduce basic concepts like bias-variance tradeoff, cross-validation, resampling and regularization techniques and many other ML topics
• Easy to code! And links well with classification problems and logistic regression and neural networks
• Allows for easy hands-on understanding of gradient descent methods
• and many more features

For more discussions of Ridge and Lasso regression, Wessel van Wieringen's article is highly recommended. Similarly, Mehta et al's article is also recommended.

Regression analysis, overarching aims

Regression analysis, overarching aims II

Examples

General linear models

Rewriting the fitting procedure as a linear algebra problem

Rewriting the fitting procedure as a linear algebra problem, more details

Generalizing the fitting procedure as a linear algebra problem

Generalizing the fitting procedure as a linear algebra problem

Optimizing our parameters

Our model for the nuclear binding energies

In our introductory notes we looked at the so-called liquid drop model. Let us remind ourselves about what we did by looking at the code.

We restate the parts of the code we are most interested in.

# Common imports
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from IPython.display import display
import os

# Where to save the figures and data files
PROJECT_ROOT_DIR = "Results"
FIGURE_ID = "Results/FigureFiles"
DATA_ID = "DataFiles/"

if not os.path.exists(PROJECT_ROOT_DIR):
    os.mkdir(PROJECT_ROOT_DIR)

if not os.path.exists(FIGURE_ID):
    os.makedirs(FIGURE_ID)

if not os.path.exists(DATA_ID):
    os.makedirs(DATA_ID)

def image_path(fig_id):
    return os.path.join(FIGURE_ID, fig_id)

def data_path(dat_id):
    return os.path.join(DATA_ID, dat_id)

def save_fig(fig_id):
    plt.savefig(image_path(fig_id) + ".png", format='png')

infile = open(data_path("MassEval2016.dat"),'r')


# Read the experimental data with Pandas
Masses = pd.read_fwf(infile, usecols=(2,3,4,6,11),
              names=('N', 'Z', 'A', 'Element', 'Ebinding'),
              widths=(1,3,5,5,5,1,3,4,1,13,11,11,9,1,2,11,9,1,3,1,12,11,1),
              header=39,
              index_col=False)

# Extrapolated values are indicated by '#' in place of the decimal place, so
# the Ebinding column won't be numeric. Coerce to float and drop these entries.
Masses['Ebinding'] = pd.to_numeric(Masses['Ebinding'], errors='coerce')
Masses = Masses.dropna()
# Convert from keV to MeV.
Masses['Ebinding'] /= 1000

# Group the DataFrame by nucleon number, A.
Masses = Masses.groupby('A')
# Find the rows of the grouped DataFrame with the maximum binding energy.
Masses = Masses.apply(lambda t: t[t.Ebinding==t.Ebinding.max()])
A = Masses['A']
Z = Masses['Z']
N = Masses['N']
Element = Masses['Element']
Energies = Masses['Ebinding']

# Now we set up the design matrix X
X = np.zeros((len(A),5))
X[:,0] = 1
X[:,1] = A
X[:,2] = A**(2.0/3.0)
X[:,3] = A**(-1.0/3.0)
X[:,4] = A**(-1.0)
# Then nice printout using pandas
DesignMatrix = pd.DataFrame(X)
DesignMatrix.index = A
DesignMatrix.columns = ['1', 'A', 'A^(2/3)', 'A^(-1/3)', '1/A']
display(DesignMatrix)

With \( \boldsymbol{\beta}\in {\mathbb{R}}^{p\times 1} \), it means that we will hereafter write our equations for the approximation as

throughout these lectures.

Optimizing our parameters, more details

Interpretations and optimizing our parameters

Interpretations and optimizing our parameters

Some useful matrix and vector expressions

The following matrix and vector relation will be useful here and for the rest of the course. Vectors are always written as boldfaced lower case letters and matrices as upper case boldfaced letters.

Interpretations and optimizing our parameters

Let us now return to our nuclear binding energies and simply code the above equations.

Own code for Ordinary Least Squares

It is rather straightforward to implement the matrix inversion and obtain the parameters \( \boldsymbol{\beta} \). After having defined the matrix \( \boldsymbol{X} \) we simply need to write

# matrix inversion to find beta
beta = np.linalg.inv(X.T.dot(X)).dot(X.T).dot(Energies)
# and then make the prediction
ytilde = X @ beta

Alternatively, you can use the least squares functionality in Numpy as

fit = np.linalg.lstsq(X, Energies, rcond =None)[0]
ytildenp = np.dot(fit,X.T)

And finally we plot our fit with and compare with data

Masses['Eapprox']  = ytilde
# Generate a plot comparing the experimental with the fitted values values.
fig, ax = plt.subplots()
ax.set_xlabel(r'$A = N + Z$')
ax.set_ylabel(r'$E_\mathrm{bind}\,/\mathrm{MeV}$')
ax.plot(Masses['A'], Masses['Ebinding'], alpha=0.7, lw=2,
            label='Ame2016')
ax.plot(Masses['A'], Masses['Eapprox'], alpha=0.7, lw=2, c='m',
            label='Fit')
ax.legend()
save_fig("Masses2016OLS")
plt.show()

Adding error analysis and training set up

We can easily test our fit by computing the \( R2 \) score that we discussed in connection with the functionality of Scikit-Learn in the introductory slides. Since we are not using Scikit-Learn here we can define our own \( R2 \) function as

def R2(y_data, y_model):
    return 1 - np.sum((y_data - y_model) ** 2) / np.sum((y_data - np.mean(y_data)) ** 2)

and we would be using it as

print(R2(Energies,ytilde))

We can easily add our MSE score as

def MSE(y_data,y_model):
    n = np.size(y_model)
    return np.sum((y_data-y_model)**2)/n

print(MSE(Energies,ytilde))

and finally the relative error as

def RelativeError(y_data,y_model):
    return abs((y_data-y_model)/y_data)
print(RelativeError(Energies, ytilde))

The \( \chi^2 \) function

The \( \chi^2 \) function

The \( \chi^2 \) function

The \( \chi^2 \) function

The \( \chi^2 \) function

The \( \chi^2 \) function

Fitting an Equation of State for Dense Nuclear Matter

Before we continue, let us introduce yet another example. We are going to fit the nuclear equation of state using results from many-body calculations. The equation of state we have made available here, as function of density, has been derived using modern nucleon-nucleon potentials with the addition of three-body forces. This time the file is presented as a standard csv file.

The beginning of the Python code here is similar to what you have seen before, with the same initializations and declarations. We use also pandas again, rather extensively in order to organize our data.

The difference now is that we use Scikit-Learn's regression tools instead of our own matrix inversion implementation. Furthermore, we sneak in Ridge regression (to be discussed below) which includes a hyperparameter \( \lambda \), also to be explained below.

The code

# Common imports
import os
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import sklearn.linear_model as skl
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error, r2_score, mean_absolute_error

# Where to save the figures and data files
PROJECT_ROOT_DIR = "Results"
FIGURE_ID = "Results/FigureFiles"
DATA_ID = "DataFiles/"

if not os.path.exists(PROJECT_ROOT_DIR):
    os.mkdir(PROJECT_ROOT_DIR)

if not os.path.exists(FIGURE_ID):
    os.makedirs(FIGURE_ID)

if not os.path.exists(DATA_ID):
    os.makedirs(DATA_ID)

def image_path(fig_id):
    return os.path.join(FIGURE_ID, fig_id)

def data_path(dat_id):
    return os.path.join(DATA_ID, dat_id)

def save_fig(fig_id):
    plt.savefig(image_path(fig_id) + ".png", format='png')

infile = open(data_path("EoS.csv"),'r')

# Read the EoS data as  csv file and organize the data into two arrays with density and energies
EoS = pd.read_csv(infile, names=('Density', 'Energy'))
EoS['Energy'] = pd.to_numeric(EoS['Energy'], errors='coerce')
EoS = EoS.dropna()
Energies = EoS['Energy']
Density = EoS['Density']
#  The design matrix now as function of various polytrops
X = np.zeros((len(Density),4))
X[:,3] = Density**(4.0/3.0)
X[:,2] = Density
X[:,1] = Density**(2.0/3.0)
X[:,0] = 1

# We use now Scikit-Learn's linear regressor and ridge regressor
# OLS part
clf = skl.LinearRegression().fit(X, Energies)
ytilde = clf.predict(X)
EoS['Eols']  = ytilde
# The mean squared error                               
print("Mean squared error: %.2f" % mean_squared_error(Energies, ytilde))
# Explained variance score: 1 is perfect prediction                                 
print('Variance score: %.2f' % r2_score(Energies, ytilde))
# Mean absolute error                                                           
print('Mean absolute error: %.2f' % mean_absolute_error(Energies, ytilde))
print(clf.coef_, clf.intercept_)

# The Ridge regression with a hyperparameter lambda = 0.1
_lambda = 0.1
clf_ridge = skl.Ridge(alpha=_lambda).fit(X, Energies)
yridge = clf_ridge.predict(X)
EoS['Eridge']  = yridge
# The mean squared error                               
print("Mean squared error: %.2f" % mean_squared_error(Energies, yridge))
# Explained variance score: 1 is perfect prediction                                 
print('Variance score: %.2f' % r2_score(Energies, yridge))
# Mean absolute error                                                           
print('Mean absolute error: %.2f' % mean_absolute_error(Energies, yridge))
print(clf_ridge.coef_, clf_ridge.intercept_)

fig, ax = plt.subplots()
ax.set_xlabel(r'$\rho[\mathrm{fm}^{-3}]$')
ax.set_ylabel(r'Energy per particle')
ax.plot(EoS['Density'], EoS['Energy'], alpha=0.7, lw=2,
            label='Theoretical data')
ax.plot(EoS['Density'], EoS['Eols'], alpha=0.7, lw=2, c='m',
            label='OLS')
ax.plot(EoS['Density'], EoS['Eridge'], alpha=0.7, lw=2, c='g',
            label='Ridge $\lambda = 0.1$')
ax.legend()
save_fig("EoSfitting")
plt.show()

The above simple polynomial in density \( \rho \) gives an excellent fit to the data.

We note also that there is a small deviation between the standard OLS and the Ridge regression at higher densities. We discuss this in more detail below.

Splitting our Data in Training and Test data

It is normal in essentially all Machine Learning studies to split the data in a training set and a test set (sometimes also an additional validation set). Scikit-Learn has an own function for this. There is no explicit recipe for how much data should be included as training data and say test data. An accepted rule of thumb is to use approximately \( 2/3 \) to \( 4/5 \) of the data as training data. We will postpone a discussion of this splitting to the end of these notes and our discussion of the so-called bias-variance tradeoff. Here we limit ourselves to repeat the above equation of state fitting example but now splitting the data into a training set and a test set.

import os
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
# Where to save the figures and data files
PROJECT_ROOT_DIR = "Results"
FIGURE_ID = "Results/FigureFiles"
DATA_ID = "DataFiles/"

if not os.path.exists(PROJECT_ROOT_DIR):
    os.mkdir(PROJECT_ROOT_DIR)

if not os.path.exists(FIGURE_ID):
    os.makedirs(FIGURE_ID)

if not os.path.exists(DATA_ID):
    os.makedirs(DATA_ID)

def image_path(fig_id):
    return os.path.join(FIGURE_ID, fig_id)

def data_path(dat_id):
    return os.path.join(DATA_ID, dat_id)

def save_fig(fig_id):
    plt.savefig(image_path(fig_id) + ".png", format='png')

def R2(y_data, y_model):
    return 1 - np.sum((y_data - y_model) ** 2) / np.sum((y_data - np.mean(y_data)) ** 2)
def MSE(y_data,y_model):
    n = np.size(y_model)
    return np.sum((y_data-y_model)**2)/n

infile = open(data_path("EoS.csv"),'r')

# Read the EoS data as  csv file and organized into two arrays with density and energies
EoS = pd.read_csv(infile, names=('Density', 'Energy'))
EoS['Energy'] = pd.to_numeric(EoS['Energy'], errors='coerce')
EoS = EoS.dropna()
Energies = EoS['Energy']
Density = EoS['Density']
#  The design matrix now as function of various polytrops
X = np.zeros((len(Density),5))
X[:,0] = 1
X[:,1] = Density**(2.0/3.0)
X[:,2] = Density
X[:,3] = Density**(4.0/3.0)
X[:,4] = Density**(5.0/3.0)
# We split the data in test and training data
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, Energies, test_size=0.2)
# matrix inversion to find beta
beta = np.linalg.inv(X_train.T.dot(X_train)).dot(X_train.T).dot(y_train)
# and then make the prediction
ytilde = X_train @ beta
print("Training R2")
print(R2(y_train,ytilde))
print("Training MSE")
print(MSE(y_train,ytilde))
ypredict = X_test @ beta
print("Test R2")
print(R2(y_test,ypredict))
print("Test MSE")
print(MSE(y_test,ypredict))

Exercises for week 35

Here are three possible exercises for week 35 and the lab sessions of Wednesday September 1.

Exercise 1: Setting up various Python environments

The first exercise here is of a mere technical art. We want you to have

• git as a version control software and to establish a user account on a provider like GitHub. Other providers like GitLab etc are equally fine. You can also use the University of Oslo GitHub facilities.
• Install various Python packages

We will make extensive use of Python as programming language and its myriad of available libraries. You will find IPython/Jupyter notebooks invaluable in your work. You can run R codes in the Jupyter/IPython notebooks, with the immediate benefit of visualizing your data. You can also use compiled languages like C++, Rust, Fortran etc if you prefer. The focus in these lectures will be on Python.

If you have Python installed (we recommend Python3) and you feel pretty familiar with installing different packages, we recommend that you install the following Python packages via pip as

1. pip install numpy scipy matplotlib ipython scikit-learn sympy pandas pillow

For Tensorflow, we recommend following the instructions in the text of Aurelien Geron, Hands‑On Machine Learning with Scikit‑Learn and TensorFlow, O'Reilly

We will come back to tensorflow later.

For Python3, replace pip with pip3.

For OSX users we recommend, after having installed Xcode, to install brew. Brew allows for a seamless installation of additional software via for example

1. brew install python3

For Linux users, with its variety of distributions like for example the widely popular Ubuntu distribution, you can use pip as well and simply install Python as

1. sudo apt-get install python3 (or python for Python2.7)

If you don't want to perform these operations separately and venture into the hassle of exploring how to set up dependencies and paths, we recommend two widely used distrubutions which set up all relevant dependencies for Python, namely

• Anaconda,

which is an open source distribution of the Python and R programming languages for large-scale data processing, predictive analytics, and scientific computing, that aims to simplify package management and deployment. Package versions are managed by the package management system conda.

• Enthought canopy

is a Python distribution for scientific and analytic computing distribution and analysis environment, available for free and under a commercial license.

We recommend using Anaconda if you are not too familiar with setting paths in a terminal environment.

Exercise 2: making your own data and exploring scikit-learn

We will generate our own dataset for a function \( y(x) \) where \( x \in [0,1] \) and defined by random numbers computed with the uniform distribution. The function \( y \) is a quadratic polynomial in \( x \) with added stochastic noise according to the normal distribution \( \cal {N}(0,1) \). The following simple Python instructions define our \( x \) and \( y \) values (with 100 data points).

x = np.random.rand(100,1)
y = 2.0+5*x*x+0.1*np.random.randn(100,1)

1. Write your own code (following the examples under the regression notes) for computing the parametrization of the data set fitting a second-order polynomial.
2. Use thereafter scikit-learn (see again the examples in the regression slides) and compare with your own code.
3. Using scikit-learn, compute also the mean square error, a risk metric corresponding to the expected value of the squared (quadratic) error defined as

and the \( R^2 \) score function. If \( \tilde{\boldsymbol{y}}_i \) is the predicted value of the \( i-th \) sample and \( y_i \) is the corresponding true value, then the score \( R^2 \) is defined as

where we have defined the mean value of \( \boldsymbol{y} \) as

You can use the functionality included in scikit-learn. If you feel for it, you can use your own program and define functions which compute the above two functions. Discuss the meaning of these results. Try also to vary the coefficient in front of the added stochastic noise term and discuss the quality of the fits.

Solution. The code here is an example of where we define our own design matrix and fit parameters \( \beta \).

import os
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split

def save_fig(fig_id):
    plt.savefig(image_path(fig_id) + ".png", format='png')

def R2(y_data, y_model):
    return 1 - np.sum((y_data - y_model) ** 2) / np.sum((y_data - np.mean(y_data)) ** 2)
def MSE(y_data,y_model):
    n = np.size(y_model)
    return np.sum((y_data-y_model)**2)/n

x = np.random.rand(100)
y = 2.0+5*x*x+0.1*np.random.randn(100)


#  The design matrix now as function of a given polynomial
X = np.zeros((len(x),3))
X[:,0] = 1.0
X[:,1] = x
X[:,2] = x**2
# We split the data in test and training data
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, y, test_size=0.2)
# matrix inversion to find beta
beta = np.linalg.inv(X_train.T @ X_train) @ X_train.T @ y_train
print(beta)
# and then make the prediction
ytilde = X_train @ beta
print("Training R2")
print(R2(y_train,ytilde))
print("Training MSE")
print(MSE(y_train,ytilde))
ypredict = X_test @ beta
print("Test R2")
print(R2(y_test,ypredict))
print("Test MSE")
print(MSE(y_test,ypredict))

Exercise 3: Normalizing our data

A much used approach before starting to train the data is to preprocess our data. Normally the data may need a rescaling and/or may be sensitive to extreme values. Scaling the data renders our inputs much more suitable for the algorithms we want to employ.

Scikit-Learn has several functions which allow us to rescale the data, normally resulting in much better results in terms of various accuracy scores. The StandardScaler function in Scikit-Learn ensures that for each feature/predictor we study the mean value is zero and the variance is one (every column in the design/feature matrix). This scaling has the drawback that it does not ensure that we have a particular maximum or minimum in our data set. Another function included in Scikit-Learn is the MinMaxScaler which ensures that all features are exactly between \( 0 \) and \( 1 \). The

The Normalizer scales each data point such that the feature vector has a euclidean length of one. In other words, it projects a data point on the circle (or sphere in the case of higher dimensions) with a radius of 1. This means every data point is scaled by a different number (by the inverse of it’s length). This normalization is often used when only the direction (or angle) of the data matters, not the length of the feature vector.

The RobustScaler works similarly to the StandardScaler in that it ensures statistical properties for each feature that guarantee that they are on the same scale. However, the RobustScaler uses the median and quartiles, instead of mean and variance. This makes the RobustScaler ignore data points that are very different from the rest (like measurement errors). These odd data points are also called outliers, and might often lead to trouble for other scaling techniques.

It also common to split the data in a training set and a testing set. A typical split is to use \( 80\% \) of the data for training and the rest for testing. This can be done as follows with our design matrix \( \boldsymbol{X} \) and data \( \boldsymbol{y} \) (remember to import scikit-learn)

# split in training and test data
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X,y,test_size=0.2)

Then we can use the standard scaler to scale our data as

scaler = StandardScaler()
scaler.fit(X_train)
X_train_scaled = scaler.transform(X_train)
X_test_scaled = scaler.transform(X_test)

In this exercise we want you to to compute the MSE for the training data and the test data as function of the complexity of a polynomial, that is the degree of a given polynomial. We want you also to compute the \( R2 \) score as function of the complexity of the model for both training data and test data. You should also run the calculation with and without scaling.

One of the aims is to reproduce Figure 2.11 of Hastie et al.

Our data is defined by \( x\in [-3,3] \) with a total of for example \( 100 \) data points.

np.random.seed()
n = 100
maxdegree = 14
# Make data set.
x = np.linspace(-3, 3, n).reshape(-1, 1)
y = np.exp(-x**2) + 1.5 * np.exp(-(x-2)**2)+ np.random.normal(0, 0.1, x.shape)

where \( y \) is the function we want to fit with a given polynomial.

a) Write a first code which sets up a design matrix \( X \) defined by a fifth-order polynomial. Scale your data and split it in training and test data.

b) Perform an ordinary least squares and compute the means squared error and the \( R2 \) factor for the training data and the test data, with and without scaling.

c) Add now a model which allows you to make polynomials up to degree \( 15 \). Perform a standard OLS fitting of the training data and compute the MSE and \( R2 \) for the training and test data and plot both test and training data MSE and \( R2 \) as functions of the polynomial degree. Compare what you see with Figure 2.11 of Hastie et al. Comment your results. For which polynomial degree do you find an optimal MSE (smallest value)?